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Iraq’s politics are chaotic and corrupt 20 years after U.S. invasion

March 17, 2023/in Politics /by todaysliveinfo

Two decades after the U.S. launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, Iraq is “not free,” at least according to the latest Freedom House analysis.

The big picture: The U.S.-led invasion that began 20 years ago this week and swiftly toppled one of the world’s most repressive regimes did not, as its architects in the George W. Bush administration hoped, herald a new dawn for democracy in the region.

Rather than the anniversary, most Iraqis are focused on “the frustrations of current reality: the kleptocracy, the lack of services,” says Omar Al-Nidawi, director of programs at the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.
The invasion elevated a new class of politicians, many of them exiles who returned to vie for power and continue to do so today, Al-Nidawi says.
“They got their foot in the door, they acquired resources, they acquired positions. So when the country transitioned to a democratic system, they had an advantage,” he says. Patronage networks, state resources and militias helped entrench their power.
State of play: Corruption and sectarianism have been endemic to Iraqi politics since the invasion, with Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties divvying up the top jobs and government ministries, and using their share of the budget to enrich themselves and employ their supporters, says Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East security program at CNAS.

That budget is almost entirely funded by oil. “There is almost no private sector economy to speak of in Iraq,” Lord says.
Around half of Iraq’s population was born after the invasion. But young Iraqis unable to secure a job in the government or oil industry have few options for work.
A Gallup index of global sentiment ranks Iraq as the third most unhappy country, behind only Afghanistan and Lebanon.
Flashback: U.S. troops withdrew after eight years of war — in which an estimated 200,000 Iraqis died along with nearly 5,000 U.S. troops — but returned in 2014 to help confront the rise of ISIS. Around 2,500 U.S. troops remain in the country to help prevent a resurgence.

They also keep an eye on Iran, which grew increasingly powerful inside Iraq as Saddam fell and the U.S. withdrew. Powerful militias inside Iraq have links to both Tehran and to political parties in Baghdad.
Yes, but: Even by surviving this long, Iraq has defied many expectations, notes the International Crisis Group’s Joost Hiltermann.

“Iraqi society came to enjoy a modicum of freedom. The country has a multiparty system for the first time in its history, repeated and relatively fair parliamentary elections, and a free (but easily intimidated) press.”
But plunging voter turnout and waves of protest, often driven by a lack of basic services like reliable electricity, underscore the disillusionment with the current system.
The latest: Current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took office in October 2022 following a long and volatile post-election power struggle. Sudani was backed by a bloc of pro-Iran parties, but he has tried to dispel claims he’s loyal to Tehran and referred to the U.S. this week as a “strategic partner.”

In addition to balancing the outside powers, he’s trying to quickly demonstrate progress at home, particularly in the power supply, Lord says. “He understands that he doesn’t have long before he’s going to be facing protesters in the streets again.”

How the last banking tumult fuels today’s populist politics

March 17, 2023/in Politics /by todaysliveinfo

But in the aftermath of two large bank failures, the conservative former vice president and the democratic socialist senator are striking remarkably similar tones. Pence, a Republican, bemoaned that “we live in a world where certain politically favored businesses are propped up, backstopped and bailed out by government.” Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, said “we cannot continue down the road of more socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for everyone else.”

Their sentiment reflects the populism that has coursed through both political parties in the 15 years since shaky financial institutions last spurred anxiety about the broader economy. The 2008 financial crisis unleashed a political realignment that rejected perceived elites and establishment figures, often with unpredictable results for Democrats and Republicans alike.

“There is rising discontent with corporate greed, which is less about left versus right than top versus bottom,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which was the first national group to endorse Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s populist-infused 2020 presidential campaign.

In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Republican Party was overtaken by the tea party movement, which clamored for smaller government and limits to federal spending. Donald Trump was eventually elevated at the expense of more established leaders like Jeb Bush, John Boehner and Paul Ryan.

Among Democrats, Occupy Wall Street activists drew attention to the party’s longstanding ties to big business and went on to help energize Sanders’ aggressive challenge to Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign. Warren rose from a Harvard University bankruptcy expert to a national political figure who helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. That was such a centerpiece of her White House bid that supporters sometimes chanted “CFPB” at her rallies.

Meanwhile, a new generation of younger lawmakers aligned with democratic socialists, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, joined Congress, often toppling longtime incumbents.

The result is a deeply fractured political environment in which members of each party are responding to a base of voters who are skeptical of institutions and uninterested in the political niceties that once ruled Washington.

Biden to host Irish prime minister on St. Patrick’s Day

March 17, 2023/in Politics /by todaysliveinfo

President Biden will welcome Ireland’s prime minister to the White House on St. Patrick’s Day, continuing a tradition that had been upended by the pandemic in recent years. The planned Oval Office meeting is part of a busy itinerary for Leo Varadkar, known as Ireland’s taoiseach, that also includes a luncheon on Capitol Hill with congressional leaders and Biden.

In Delaware, Hunter Biden, the president’s son, has filed a sweeping countersuit against the computer repair shop owner who said that he dropped his laptop off and never claimed it, a legal action that escalates the battle over how provocative data and images of Hunter Biden were obtained nearly five years ago.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar began his day in Washington with a breakfast with Vice President Harris at her residence at the Naval Observatory.

Varadkar, Ireland’s first openly gay head of government, praised the United States for its leadership on gay rights and Harris in particular for her past advocacy of marriage equality.

“From Stonewall to Sacramento to San Francisco, America has led the way when it comes to LGBT equality,” said Varadkar, known as Ireland’s taoiseach. “I don’t think I would be here today were it not for what America did.

How the 2008 financial crisis fuels today’s populist politics

March 17, 2023/in Politics /by todaysliveinfo

WASHINGTON (AP) — Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders are hardly political allies.

But in the aftermath of two large bank failures, the conservative former vice president and the democratic socialist senator are striking remarkably similar tones. Pence, a Republican, bemoaned that “we live in a world where certain politically favored businesses are propped up, backstopped and bailed out by government.” Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, said “we cannot continue down the road of more socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for everyone else.”

Their sentiment reflects the populism that has coursed through both political parties in the 15 years since shaky financial institutions last spurred anxiety about the broader economy. The 2008 financial crisis unleashed a political realignment that rejected perceived elites and establishment figures, often with unpredictable results for Democrats and Republicans alike.

“There is rising discontent with corporate greed, which is less about left versus right than top versus bottom,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which was the first national group to endorse Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s populist-infused 2020 presidential campaign.

In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Republican Party was overtaken by the tea party movement, which clamored for smaller government and limits to federal spending. Donald Trump was eventually elevated at the expense of more established leaders like Jeb Bush, John Boehner and Paul Ryan.

EXPLAINER: What to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse

Among Democrats, Occupy Wall Street activists drew attention to the party’s longstanding ties to big business and went on to help energize Sanders’ aggressive challenge to Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign. Warren rose from a Harvard University bankruptcy expert to a national political figure who helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. That was such a centerpiece of her White House bid that supporters sometimes chanted “CFPB” at her rallies.

Meanwhile, a new generation of younger lawmakers aligned with democratic socialists, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, joined Congress, often toppling longtime incumbents.

The result is a deeply fractured political environment in which members of each party are responding to a base of voters who are skeptical of institutions and uninterested in the political niceties that once ruled Washington.

At the White House on Monday, President Joe Biden sought to navigate those forces by insisting that taxpayers won’t be on the hook for any assistance to failing banks.

“This is an important point: No losses will be borne by the taxpayers,” said Biden, whose early days as vice president under Barack Obama were consumed by the response to the financial crisis.

The current turmoil is different from that era. While the 2008 crisis centered on souring mortgages held by many banks, this week’s trouble seems more narrowly confined to institutions that weren’t properly prepared for rising interest rates.

READ MORE: Federal Reserve rate hikes likely to cause a recession, research says

And while some of Wall Street’s most prominent firms, including Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns, collapsed in 2008, there’s little concern now about the strength of firms that are considered “too big to fail.” That’s because reforms adopted in the wake of the crisis intensified the scrutiny of such institutions, subjecting them to greater regulation, tougher capital requirements and regular stress tests that examine whether they can survive sudden traumas.

Some of the most dramatic moments of the 2008 crisis — including a rare White House meeting between then-President George W. Bush, Democratic nominee Obama and GOP nominee John McCain — happened just weeks before the election. This time, the instability is playing out with the presidential campaign in its infancy.

But those eyeing the White House in 2024 are nonetheless stoking many now-familiar populist themes.

Pence, who has yet to formally declare a presidential campaign, said Biden was “disingenuous” in saying that taxpayers wouldn’t ultimately be responsible for the government’s response to bank failures.

Nikki Haley, Trump’s former U.N. ambassador who declared her presidential campaign last month, was more direct: “The era of big government and corporate bailouts must end.”

Trump, who is mounting his third presidential campaign, turned to stoking fear, predicting another a 1930s-style depression, in a way similar to how he did amid the 2008 crisis.

“WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEPRESSION FAR BIGGER AND MORE POWERFUL THAN THAT OF 1929,” he wrote on his social media platform. “AS PROOF, THE BANKS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO COLLAPSE!!!

Biden faces massive political risks from banking turmoil

March 17, 2023/in Politics /by todaysliveinfo

President Joe Biden could be damned if he saves the banks or damned if he doesn’t.

Another major industry intervention to prop up a bank on Thursday – not by the government but under the auspices of the administration – underscored the still grave political peril of the sudden crisis that erupted just over a week ago. It also pushed the administration farther onto a fragile limb that could snap if the bank meltdown were to get worse.

Some of the country’s most powerful banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Truist, combined to shore up teetering First Republic Bank in a $30 billion cash infusion meant to ease anxiety in the markets, head off a domino effect of more bank failures and demonstrate the industry still has a solid foundation.

This came days after the White House used the Deposit Insurance Fund, a $100 billion facility funded by premiums banks pay to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, to guarantee deposits in Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed last week, and Signature Bank, which regulators shut down.

The picture here is of the banking industry saving itself – and not of the government bailing out rich bankers whose recklessness put the savings, prosperity and peace of mind of Americans at risk.

It’s a narrative that the president badly needs to stick.

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